Technology Transformation Over The Next Three Years
The pace of change of Technology in 2017 is breathtaking. It is difficult to accept that it was only 10 years ago that the iPhone was first introduced, and it was laughed at by competitors at the time, and yet today the iPhone or it’s equivalent is a vital position of most of the citizens on the planet. Indeed, Tesla has launched a new vehicle there opens I simply detecting that you are close to it with your phone, and the assumption is that everybody who owns one of these vehicles will also have a smartphone.
It is hard to believe, but the pace of technological change is even faster in 2017, driven by the incessant improvement of computer chips which double and power and have an price every two years, and driven by the enormous productivity increase in software development and artificial intelligence, and accelerated further by the networking effect of a fully interconnected planet.
For example it is a safe assumption get any child born in the past 3 years or never get a driver’s licence, because they will never need to be able to drive a car. The reason for this is that autonomous driving technology who is developing so rapidly that it will be introduced and some markets within the next two years, and will have spread around the world in a tidal wave within the next 10 years. In 10 years time driverless cars will have proved to be 10 times safer then cars driven by a human, simply because it is a scientific fact that around 92% of all vehicle accidents are caused by the driver. At this point in 10 years time the insurance industry well have been drastically disrupted to reflect the massively lower accident rate, and it will be simply too expensive for a young person to get a driver’s licence and drive their own vehicle simply because they will not be able to afford the insurance.
The corollary of this is that any child born in the last 3 years will be able to travel anywhere locally in an autonomous taxi at a fraction of the cost of buying a taxi ride today or of owning their own vehicle, or even at a fraction of a cost of borrowing their parents vehicle for the truck. The almost Global adoption of the smartphone over 10 years will look like a minor change compared to the change in transport over the next 10 years.
One major impact of this transformation to transport as a service will be the very large cost savings for everybody who need to travel, and the subsequent increase and spending power and efficiency for everybody. Exciting times are ahead.